WEATHER INTELLIGENCE · OUTDOOR STAY

Har Tzin · Midburn weather outlook

14 October–7 November 2026 · 30.8186875° N, 35.0584375° E
Updated 15 October 2026, 06:00 IDT

Next 7 days · daytime27–29°C

Central estimates for daily highs

Night / early morning18–21°C

Central estimates for daily lows

Rain ≥1 mm in a day3% max

Highest model-estimated daily probability; 7 days with rain data

Morning review · 15 October, 06:00 Israel time

The scheduled morning check ran successfully. The outlook for the coming week is broadly unchanged, with wind and possible dust today the main immediate watch point. Yesterday’s heat warning has expired. The dedicated Midburn window below covers 28 October–7 November: Camp set-ups + event.

Official warnings and nearby conditions

The IMS warning feed, checked at 06:00, contains no current warning polygon covering this pin. The previous heat-stress warning ended on 14 October at 20:00. New mountain-obscuration and western Negev low-cloud notices run until 07:00 today, but their polygons exclude the pin. Southern flood and storm feeds contain no notices. This is a time-limited feed check, not an assurance that conditions are safe.

At 05:00, Hazeva measured sustained wind of 24.1 km/h and a strongest gust in the preceding hour of 40.0 km/h, compared with 8.3 and 16.6 km/h in yesterday’s nearby-station snapshot. Hazeva is 17.8 km away and at a different elevation; these are not measurements at the camp. All four nearby stations report 0 mm in the past 24 hours. The 04:25 IMS national bulletin expects winds to strengthen today, with possible haze or dust mainly in southern and central Israel.

Temperatures, rain and wind for the next week

For 15–21 October, main daily high estimates are 26.7–29.1°C, with overnight lows 17.5–21.3°C. Today is about 29°C by day and 21°C at night. Compared with yesterday’s forecasts for the same dates, changes remain under 1°C for day/night temperatures and under 4.1 km/h for the main daily gust estimates.

Each day’s share of scenarios with at least 1 mm of rain is 0–2.54%, and the main daily rain amount remains 0 mm. These are model scenario shares, not calibrated real-world probabilities, and zero does not rule rain out. One GEM forecast has a small 0.2 mm hourly rain signal today around 16:00. The latest radar frame, valid 05:50, shows no echo within roughly 20 km of the pin, with tiny returns roughly 35 km northeast. Fresh ICON/COSMO maps from 14 October 12 UTC leave the pin and nearby western highlands unshaded through Sunday morning. Complete upstream catchments have not been assessed, so this does not rule out a flash flood.

Main estimates for the strongest gust each day are 26–34 km/h. The clearest remaining threshold event in the next 72 hours is a single ICON forecast of 40.3 km/h at 20:00 on Friday, 16 October, up from 39.6 km/h in yesterday’s daily estimate. Gusts are brief stronger winds. The GFS daily maximum of 42.1 km/h for today includes a peak before this report, so it is not presented as a future 72-hour event. Later, the ICON 19 October outlier has eased from 49.7 to 40.3 km/h; GFS now reaches 30.2 km/h sustained wind that day. These individual forecasts are watch points, not a consensus or a structural safety rating.

Midburn · Camp set-ups + event · 28 October–7 November

Forecast confidence remains low. Across complete scenarios covering all eleven days, the period-average daily high is 26.1°C and average overnight low 16.8°C. The middle 80% of scenarios spans 24.1–28.9°C for that average high and 14.7–19.6°C for that average low. These are averages over the period, not limits on the temperature of an individual day.

Rain on at least one day, with a daily total of 1 mm or more: about 56% of scenarios, compared with about 60% yesterday. The total rain estimate for the whole period is 1.8 mm, with a middle-80% range of 0–13.2 mm. At least one gust reaching 40 km/h: about 23% of scenarios, compared with about 29% yesterday. The period’s peak-gust estimate is 32.4 km/h, with a 26.6–43.2 km/h middle-80% range. Both percentages are marked as mixed model signals, separately from the low confidence in this long-range outlook.

Rain and temperature use 52 complete members from two model families, NOAA and ECCC. Gusts use only 31 NOAA members; missing gusts from other sources are not treated as calm. Each member is followed through the entire period, and model families get equal weight. Daily probabilities are not averaged or assumed independent. These small changes do not establish a new event-weather pattern, and precise rain or wind timing is not reliable yet.

Longer-range cross-check and source coverage

The freshly reviewed ECMWF extended chart is a new 14 October 00 UTC cycle, retrieved at 06:01 today. Its weekly temperature picture remains slightly cooler than model normal for 19–25 October, then modestly warmer for 26 October–1 November and 2–8 November, with broad uncertainty. The late-October rain distribution includes a more extreme wet member than yesterday, while the median remains near the model-climate reference. That is not evidence of a broadly wetter consensus, a rain probability, or a specific wet day. Near-normal rainfall anomaly does not mean zero rain.

All 18 configured products were retried; 15 passed the numerical-use checks. AIGEFS was excluded because its metadata initialization is about 45 hours old. Both ACCESS requests still return no data. The archive retains these sources for follow-up; their absence is never filled with zero. There are 57 variable/date coverage changes, mostly from excluding AIGEFS and forecasts extending their horizons; these are not 57 weather changes. The only daily numeric change crossing the configured thresholds is the 29 October share for at least 0.2 mm falling 10.37 percentage points. At that lead time, it is a weak long-range detail. All 400 independent aggregation checks passed, including the 25-hour daylight-saving day.

Open the bilingual Midburn view. All times above are Israel local time unless explicitly marked UTC.

What changed

DateMeasureBeforeNowSource coverage
2026-10-29rain p_0.224.013.6same model coverage

57 date/variable combinations changed their available models or member counts; see the public data export. Such changes can shift a consensus without a forecast revision.

Daily outlook · detailed range

Bold is the family-balanced median; parentheses show the 10th–90th percentile model range. These are uncalibrated model estimates, not guaranteed limits. Rain probability refers to the whole local day; a model probability of 0% does not establish zero real-world risk.

Local dateLow °CHigh °CRain ≥0.2 / ≥1 mmRain mm/dayMax wind km/hPeak gust km/hGust ≥40Families temp/gust
Thu 15 Oct21 (18–22)29 (27–30)2% / 0%0.0 (0.0–0.0)18 (12–26)34 (26–41)12%6/3
Fri 16 Oct19 (16–20)28 (26–29)<1% / <1%0.0 (0.0–0.0)17 (9–25)28 (22–35)0%6/3
Sat 17 Oct18 (17–20)28 (26–29)11% / 3%0.0 (0.0–0.3)15 (9–22)26 (19–34)<1%6/3
Sun 18 Oct18 (15–20)28 (26–29)1% / <1%0.0 (0.0–0.0)18 (12–24)30 (26–40)11%6/3
Mon 19 Oct18 (15–20)27 (25–29)2% / 0%0.0 (0.0–0.0)19 (14–27)32 (27–40)10%6/3
Tue 20 Oct18 (14–20)27 (25–28)3% / <1%0.0 (0.0–0.0)17 (9–24)30 (25–39)8%6/3
Wed 21 Oct18 (14–20)27 (26–29)3% / 1%0.0 (0.0–0.0)16 (9–24)31 (24–39)9%6/3

Days 8–15 · lower confidence

Timing is increasingly uncertain. A narrower range or lower gust estimate can result from fewer available models, not improved certainty.

Local dateLow °CHigh °CRain ≥0.2 / ≥1 mmRain mm/dayMax wind km/hPeak gust km/hGust ≥40Families temp/gust
Thu 22 Oct18 (14–20)28 (26–30)2% / <1%0.0 (0.0–0.0)17 (8–25)29 (22–38)5%5/3
Fri 23 Oct18 (15–21)29 (25–32)7% / 2%0.0 (0.0–0.0)16 (8–24)28 (22–36)4%5/3
Sat 24 Oct19 (15–22)28 (24–32)12% / 7%0.0 (0.0–0.6)15 (8–24)28 (21–38)9%4/2
Sun 25 Oct19 (14–22)28 (24–32)15% / 7%0.0 (0.0–0.6)13 (7–19)22 (15–27)0%4/1
Mon 26 Oct19 (15–22)28 (24–32)13% / 7%0.0 (0.0–0.6)12 (8–20)18 (12–27)3%4/1
Tue 27 Oct19 (15–22)28 (25–32)9% / 4%0.0 (0.0–0.0)13 (7–20)15 (9–33)6%4/1
Wed 28 Oct19 (15–22)29 (24–32)17% / 9%0.0 (0.0–0.8)13 (8–22)21 (11–32)0%4/1
Thu 29 Oct18 (15–21)27 (24–31)14% / 10%0.0 (0.0–0.8)9 (6–18)17 (11–28)3%2/1

Later dates · period outlook only

Do not use these dates for precise rain timing or tent-loading decisions. Temperature ranges describe the period-average daily low/high across ensemble scenarios; rain is the period total. Wind/gust is the greatest modeled value anywhere in the period.

PeriodAvg low °CAvg high °CTotal rain mmRain total ≥1 / ≥10 mmPeriod peak gust km/hTemp families
2026-10-30 → 2026-11-0517 (15–19)26 (23–29)0.6 (0.0–7.8)47% / 8%30 (24–43)ECCC,NOAA
2026-11-06 → 2026-11-0716 (12–19)25 (20–29)0.0 (0.0–2.2)17% / 6%23 (11–27)ECCC,NOAA

Wind and rain attention signals

Attention levels: sustained wind ≥30 km/h; gusts ≥40 km/h and ≥60 km/h. These are monitoring thresholds, not structural or equipment ratings. Individual models can show a useful warning signal even when the consensus is lower.

DateEvidenceVariableSignal
2026-10-15Ensemble scenariosgust12% ≥40 km/h
2026-10-18Ensemble scenariosgust11% ≥40 km/h
2026-10-15GFS deterministicwind34 km/h
2026-10-15GFS deterministicgust42 km/h
2026-10-19GFS deterministicwind30 km/h
2026-10-16ICON deterministicgust40 km/h
2026-10-19ICON deterministicgust40 km/h
2026-10-21ICON deterministicgust40 km/h

Next 72 hours: stronger model events

ModelLocal peak timeVariableModeled peak
ICON deterministic2026-10-16T20:00:00+03:00gust40.3
GEM deterministic2026-10-15T16:00:00+03:00rain0.2
Hour-by-hour guidance for the next 72 hours

Hourly output can be interpolated from 3- or 6-hourly source data. Precipitation and gust fields refer to the preceding hour; the temperature and wind fields refer to the stated time.

Local hourTemperature °CRain ≥0.2 mmWind km/hGust km/h
2026-10-15T06:00:00+03:0022 (18–23)0%8 (4–14)19 (6–28)
2026-10-15T07:00:00+03:0022 (19–23)0%8 (4–12)16 (8–23)
2026-10-15T08:00:00+03:0022 (20–24)0%7 (4–10)13 (8–17)
2026-10-15T09:00:00+03:0024 (22–25)0%6 (3–10)12 (7–15)
2026-10-15T10:00:00+03:0025 (23–26)0%6 (3–10)13 (8–19)
2026-10-15T11:00:00+03:0026 (24–27)0%7 (3–12)17 (10–23)
2026-10-15T12:00:00+03:0027 (26–28)0%8 (3–13)20 (11–27)
2026-10-15T13:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)0%9 (4–14)22 (14–28)
2026-10-15T14:00:00+03:0029 (27–30)0%11 (5–16)24 (16–29)
2026-10-15T15:00:00+03:0029 (27–30)0%13 (5–17)25 (19–30)
2026-10-15T16:00:00+03:0029 (27–30)0%14 (6–18)25 (20–32)
2026-10-15T17:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)0%15 (8–21)25 (18–35)
2026-10-15T18:00:00+03:0027 (25–28)0%16 (8–22)25 (16–35)
2026-10-15T19:00:00+03:0026 (24–27)0%14 (8–22)24 (16–32)
2026-10-15T20:00:00+03:0024 (22–26)0%12 (7–20)21 (11–27)
2026-10-15T21:00:00+03:0023 (20–24)0%9 (5–17)16 (9–25)
2026-10-15T22:00:00+03:0022 (19–24)0%7 (3–15)14 (5–21)
2026-10-15T23:00:00+03:0022 (18–23)0%7 (3–14)11 (3–17)
2026-10-16T00:00:00+03:0021 (18–22)0%6 (4–13)7 (4–16)
2026-10-16T01:00:00+03:0021 (17–22)0%6 (3–12)7 (4–15)
2026-10-16T02:00:00+03:0020 (17–21)0%6 (3–12)7 (4–17)
2026-10-16T03:00:00+03:0020 (16–21)0%6 (3–12)7 (4–17)
2026-10-16T04:00:00+03:0019 (16–20)0%6 (2–11)6 (3–17)
2026-10-16T05:00:00+03:0019 (16–21)0%6 (2–11)6 (2–16)
2026-10-16T06:00:00+03:0019 (16–21)0%6 (2–11)6 (2–16)
2026-10-16T07:00:00+03:0020 (17–21)0%5 (2–11)6 (2–16)
2026-10-16T08:00:00+03:0021 (19–22)0%4 (2–10)6 (2–16)
2026-10-16T09:00:00+03:0022 (20–23)0%4 (2–8)7 (3–16)
2026-10-16T10:00:00+03:0023 (22–24)0%4 (2–7)9 (5–17)
2026-10-16T11:00:00+03:0025 (23–26)0%4 (1–9)12 (5–18)
2026-10-16T12:00:00+03:0026 (24–27)0%5 (2–10)16 (7–21)
2026-10-16T13:00:00+03:0027 (25–28)0%6 (3–11)19 (8–24)
2026-10-16T14:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)0%8 (3–14)21 (9–27)
2026-10-16T15:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)0%10 (3–15)23 (12–28)
2026-10-16T16:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)<1%12 (5–17)22 (16–31)
2026-10-16T17:00:00+03:0027 (25–28)<1%14 (6–21)23 (16–34)
2026-10-16T18:00:00+03:0026 (24–27)<1%14 (6–24)26 (13–34)
2026-10-16T19:00:00+03:0025 (23–26)0%14 (6–24)26 (12–32)
2026-10-16T20:00:00+03:0024 (21–24)0%13 (6–21)23 (12–30)
2026-10-16T21:00:00+03:0022 (20–23)0%12 (5–20)20 (10–27)
2026-10-16T22:00:00+03:0022 (19–22)0%10 (4–18)17 (6–24)
2026-10-16T23:00:00+03:0021 (18–22)0%8 (2–16)13 (3–20)
2026-10-17T00:00:00+03:0020 (18–21)0%7 (4–14)9 (4–18)
2026-10-17T01:00:00+03:0020 (17–21)0%7 (4–12)9 (4–16)
2026-10-17T02:00:00+03:0020 (18–20)0%7 (3–11)9 (4–15)
2026-10-17T03:00:00+03:0019 (18–20)0%7 (3–11)9 (4–17)
2026-10-17T04:00:00+03:0019 (18–20)0%7 (3–11)8 (4–16)
2026-10-17T05:00:00+03:0019 (17–20)0%6 (2–10)9 (3–16)
2026-10-17T06:00:00+03:0019 (18–20)0%6 (2–10)10 (3–17)
2026-10-17T07:00:00+03:0019 (18–21)2%6 (3–10)11 (4–16)
2026-10-17T08:00:00+03:0020 (19–22)2%6 (2–10)12 (5–17)
2026-10-17T09:00:00+03:0022 (20–23)2%5 (2–10)13 (7–18)
2026-10-17T10:00:00+03:0023 (21–24)<1%4 (2–10)13 (9–17)
2026-10-17T11:00:00+03:0024 (23–25)<1%5 (2–10)15 (10–18)
2026-10-17T12:00:00+03:0026 (24–26)<1%5 (2–10)16 (8–20)
2026-10-17T13:00:00+03:0026 (25–28)<1%7 (2–12)18 (8–22)
2026-10-17T14:00:00+03:0027 (25–28)<1%8 (3–13)19 (9–25)
2026-10-17T15:00:00+03:0028 (26–29)<1%9 (4–14)20 (10–27)
2026-10-17T16:00:00+03:0028 (25–29)0%10 (5–16)20 (13–29)
2026-10-17T17:00:00+03:0027 (24–28)0%12 (6–19)22 (13–32)
2026-10-17T18:00:00+03:0026 (23–27)0%13 (7–21)22 (11–33)
2026-10-17T19:00:00+03:0024 (22–26)0%13 (6–20)22 (9–32)
2026-10-17T20:00:00+03:0023 (21–24)0%12 (5–20)23 (7–31)
2026-10-17T21:00:00+03:0022 (20–23)0%12 (5–19)22 (5–29)
2026-10-17T22:00:00+03:0022 (18–22)0%11 (4–19)18 (3–25)
2026-10-17T23:00:00+03:0021 (17–22)0%9 (3–17)13 (4–19)
2026-10-18T00:00:00+03:0020 (16–21)0%7 (3–15)8 (2–15)
2026-10-18T01:00:00+03:0020 (16–21)0%6 (2–13)7 (3–13)
2026-10-18T02:00:00+03:0019 (16–20)0%6 (3–12)7 (2–13)
2026-10-18T03:00:00+03:0019 (16–20)0%6 (3–11)7 (3–13)
2026-10-18T04:00:00+03:0018 (15–20)<1%6 (3–10)6 (4–15)
2026-10-18T05:00:00+03:0018 (15–20)<1%5 (3–10)7 (4–19)
2026-10-18T06:00:00+03:0018 (15–20)<1%5 (3–9)7 (4–21)
Deterministic cross-check: next 7 days
ModelDateLow °CHigh °CRain mmWind km/hGust km/h
IFS HRES2026-10-1519.329.30.023.238.5
IFS HRES2026-10-1616.828.50.018.431.7
IFS HRES2026-10-1717.029.10.016.329.5
IFS HRES2026-10-1816.629.00.019.934.9
IFS HRES2026-10-1916.127.60.018.436.7
IFS HRES2026-10-2015.725.70.018.434.6
IFS HRES2026-10-2117.725.90.018.334.2
AIFS single2026-10-1522.930.30.013.9—
AIFS single2026-10-1620.329.10.011.9—
AIFS single2026-10-1719.729.00.014.4—
AIFS single2026-10-1819.928.90.016.7—
AIFS single2026-10-1919.928.20.016.8—
AIFS single2026-10-2018.927.70.015.6—
AIFS single2026-10-2119.429.10.015.0—
GFS deterministic2026-10-1521.129.30.034.542.1
GFS deterministic2026-10-1619.927.90.026.330.6
GFS deterministic2026-10-1719.227.30.026.728.8
GFS deterministic2026-10-1818.728.20.029.735.6
GFS deterministic2026-10-1918.328.00.030.235.3
GFS deterministic2026-10-2017.827.20.028.332.0
GFS deterministic2026-10-2118.127.60.025.534.9
ICON deterministic2026-10-1521.428.90.023.237.4
ICON deterministic2026-10-1617.927.40.023.840.3
ICON deterministic2026-10-1717.627.50.020.436.7
ICON deterministic2026-10-1817.828.10.024.739.6
ICON deterministic2026-10-1918.527.10.025.040.3
ICON deterministic2026-10-2017.327.20.021.439.2
ICON deterministic2026-10-2117.327.70.023.240.0
UKMO deterministic2026-10-1519.927.70.022.036.4
UKMO deterministic2026-10-1617.527.10.019.132.0
UKMO deterministic2026-10-1716.927.00.016.225.2
UKMO deterministic2026-10-1815.527.00.024.538.9
UKMO deterministic2026-10-1916.026.50.013.327.7
UKMO deterministic2026-10-2014.026.00.012.227.0
GEM deterministic2026-10-1518.329.60.211.221.2
GEM deterministic2026-10-1615.428.20.08.614.0
GEM deterministic2026-10-1715.227.70.010.419.4
GEM deterministic2026-10-1814.927.50.010.818.7
GEM deterministic2026-10-1915.127.30.014.026.6
GEM deterministic2026-10-2014.326.70.09.016.9
GEM deterministic2026-10-2114.027.70.07.613.7
ARPEGE deterministic2026-10-1522.631.60.019.135.6
ARPEGE deterministic2026-10-1621.430.50.019.937.4
ARPEGE deterministic2026-10-1720.830.70.016.729.5
ARPEGE deterministic2026-10-1821.230.80.020.935.6
JMA deterministic2026-10-1521.027.90.021.0—
JMA deterministic2026-10-1619.326.60.014.5—
JMA deterministic2026-10-1719.026.10.012.2—
JMA deterministic2026-10-1818.727.30.018.4—
JMA deterministic2026-10-1919.725.60.018.9—
JMA deterministic2026-10-2018.526.60.018.0—
JMA deterministic2026-10-2119.328.20.018.5—

Official IMS check

Snapshot: 15 Oct 2026 06:00 IDT. Official warnings · National forecast

The exact coordinate falls in the IMS Northern Arava warning region. The Dimona forecast point is about 28 km north of the event site.

No warning in the fetched IMS list matched the site’s warning polygon.

At this snapshot, the southern flood and storm warning feeds contained no entries. This is a current check only; it does not rule out later warnings or upstream flash floods.

A separate notice for poor visibility in mountain cloud or mist includes the Negev Mountain region (15 Oct 2026 04:00 IDT–15 Oct 2026 07:00 IDT). Its polygon does not contain the event coordinate; routes through that region may differ.

A separate notice for a weather hazard includes the Negev Mountain region (15 Oct 2026 03:00 IDT–15 Oct 2026 07:00 IDT). Its polygon does not contain the event coordinate; routes through that region may differ.

Nearby measured conditions

IMS hourly observation file · Distances are from the exact event coordinate. Ages below are measured at the snapshot time.

StationDistance / elevationObservedAgeTemperatureWind / hourly gust24 h rain
Hazeva17.8 km / -135 m15 Oct 2026 05:00 IDT61 min25.9°C24.1 / 40.0 km/h0 mm
Sede Boqer25.8 km / 475 m15 Oct 2026 05:00 IDT61 min19.3°C11.9 / 17.6 km/h0 mm
Avdat27.6 km / 555 m15 Oct 2026 05:00 IDT61 min18.4°C10.1 / 13.7 km/h0 mm
Mizpe Ramon33.6 km / 845 m15 Oct 2026 05:00 IDT61 min17.0°C13.0 / 31.7 km/h0 mm

Hazeva is a low-lying Arava station; Sede Boqer and Avdat are plateau stations. These elevation differences matter. None measures the event site.

National forecast cross-check

Forecaster bulletin issued 15 Oct 2026 04:25 IDT. The wording below is a short paraphrase.

Nearby city forecasts are geographic proxies, not site measurements. Fresh six-hour XML issue: Thu Oct 15 03:04:19 IDT 2026; last valid time: 22 Oct 2026 03:00 IDT. The API’s older created fields appear to be database insertion dates; do not treat them as model initialization or rely on them to assess forecast freshness. Use the explicit XML issue time and model run time. Detailed forecasts do not extend beyond their published horizon.

Radar and regional rain maps

The IMS radar frame valid 15 October 05:50 IDT, about 11 minutes old at collection, shows no resolved precipitation echo at the pin or around the nearby Sede Boqer/Avdat highlands to its west. A georeferenced check found no colored echo within roughly 20 km of the pin. A few very small returns are visible farther north and northeast; the closest colored pixels in the nearby image window are approximately 35 km northeast. Their connection to the pin’s drainage has not been established. This describes radar echoes, not measured ground rainfall.

Fresh ICON-IL and COSMO-IL runs initialized 14 October 12Z were reviewed in 26 six-hour rainfall panels ending from 15 October 06Z to 18 October 06Z (09:00 IDT). Both leave the pin’s vicinity and the adjacent Negev highlands to its west unshaded. Rain is concentrated over the Mediterranean, northern Israel and the coast, at times reaching the southern coastal/northwestern Negev fringe on Friday and Saturday. The broad near-site rain picture remains similar to the previous review. These are new model runs, initialized 24 hours later than yesterday’s saved guidance: all 18 panels with overlapping valid times have changed image hashes, and eight panels add later valid times. Initialization was about 15 hours before this snapshot.

This qualitative map review does not delineate the complete upstream catchment or calculate runoff. Small rainfall features and terrain-related radar limitations can matter, so an unshaded forecast or absent echo is not an all-clear for flash flooding. The southern flood and storm feeds were successfully retrieved and contain no entries, but that result applies only to the 06:00 IDT check. Separately, the IMS national bulletin issued at 04:25 IDT says winds will strengthen today and haze or dust is possible mainly in southern and central Israel. That wind concern remains relevant even with little rain near the pin.

Visual review: 15 Oct 2026 06:05 IDT. Findings refer only to images saved with this snapshot.

Latest radar frame: 15 Oct 2026 05:50 IDT. Original radar image

ICON - IL run 2026-10-14 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-18 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps

COSMO - IL run 2026-10-14 12:00:00 UTC; available maps through 2026-10-18 06:00:00 UTC. IMS model maps

ICON-IL uses approximately 2.5 km grid spacing and ECMWF boundary conditions, so it is not an independent global-model vote. Radar can miss weak precipitation or have coverage limits; an unshaded model map is a forecast, not an all-clear.

ICON six-hour precipitation frames reviewed
ICON forecast rain maps saved with this snapshot
Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.
COSMO six-hour precipitation frames reviewed
COSMO forecast rain maps saved with this snapshot
Each panel shows the previous six hours of modeled precipitation, ending at its UTC label. Exact colors and positions are preserved in the original source PNGs in this snapshot.

Extended outlook and historical context

ECMWF weekly guidance

Model initialized 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z; retrieved 2026-10-15T03:00:49.128264+00:00. Weekly anomalies are relative to ECMWF’s own model climate. They do not specify individual-day temperatures, rain timing or gusts.

Visually reviewed 15 October 2026: A new ECMWF cycle, initialized 14 October 00 UTC, retains a slight cool tilt for 19–25 October followed by a modest warm tilt for 26 October–1 November and 2–8 November. The ensemble spread is broad. Rainfall medians remain near the model-climate reference. The late-October upper extreme is wetter than in the previous cycle, but that does not establish a wetter consensus or specific rainy days. These are qualitative weekly signals, not daily forecasts.

ECMWF subseasonal point meteogram with weekly temperature, precipitation and pressure distributions, initialized 2026-10-14T00:00:00Z
Each box is labelled at the end of its weekly interval. In this run, 9 November represents 2–8 November, extending one day past this report’s 7 November endpoint. The graphic identifies the selected model grid point; it can differ from the requested coordinates. Model-climate anomalies must not be added mechanically to the ERA5 baseline below.

Sources: ECMWF point meteogram · Archived-run chart API · Product explanation. Chart © ECMWF, CC BY 4.0.

What the season has historically been like

Climate reference, not a 2026 forecast. ERA5 reanalysis for 1991–2020 at the requested location shows a substantial cooling tendency from mid-October into early November. These estimates represent a coarse model grid with elevation processing, rather than a weather station at the exact point.

1991–2020 calendar-period averages
DatesMean daily highMean daily lowHistorical daily highs, 10th–90th percentile
14–20 Oct31.0°C19.3°C27.3–35.1°C
21–27 Oct29.6°C18.1°C26.2–33.5°C
28 Oct–3 Nov27.3°C16.7°C24.4–30.5°C
4–7 Nov26.4°C16.2°C22.8–30.6°C

For the same 25 calendar days across those 30 years, total rain averaged 5.4 mm, with a median of 2.8 mm and a 10th–90th percentile range of 0.1–16.1 mm. At least one day with 1 mm or more occurred in 19 of 30 years. These historical frequencies are not the probability of rain this year. Local thunderstorms and runoff are poorly represented by a single coarse grid cell.

Historical daily maximum sustained model wind speed had a median of 12.7 km/h, with a 10th–90th percentile range of 8.5–17.3 km/h. These are background conditions, not current gust guidance; exposed ridges and channels can differ.

Source: ERA5 via Open-Meteo Historical Weather API. ERA5 grid centre 30.75°N, 35.00°E; 0.25° resolution; provider elevation 140 m. Daily boundaries are fixed UTC+3 throughout this cached dataset, not adjusted for historical daylight-saving changes. Percentiles describe past daily or period variability, not forecast confidence intervals.

Sources, freshness and reproducibility

Forecast retrieval: 15 October 2026 06:00 IDT. Coordinates: 30.8186875, 35.0584375. Open-Meteo elevation: about 140 m. Grid locations and elevations are recorded in the manifest.

Model / source dataTypeFamilyLatest metadata initComplete-day coverageStatus
IFS ensembleensembleECMWF14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-24; gust through 2026-10-24used
AIFS ensembleensembleECMWF14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-28; gust unavailableused
GEFS extendedensembleNOAA14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-11-07; gust through 2026-11-07used
AIGEFSensembleNOAA13 Oct 06:00 UTC—excluded / unavailable
ICON ensembleensembleDWD14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-21; gust unavailableused
GEM ensembleensembleECCC14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-11-07; gust unavailableused
MOGREPS ensembleensembleUKMO14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-23; gust through 2026-10-23used
WeatherNext 2ensembleGoogleunavailableT through 2026-10-28; gust unavailableused
ACCESS ensemble (availability probe)ensembleBOM26 Jun 18:00 UTC—excluded / unavailable
IFS HRESforecastECMWF14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-28; gust through 2026-10-28used
AIFS singleforecastECMWF14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-29; gust unavailableused
GFS deterministicforecastNOAA14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-29; gust through 2026-10-29used
ICON deterministicforecastDWD14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-21; gust through 2026-10-21used
UKMO deterministicforecastUKMO14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-20; gust through 2026-10-20used
GEM deterministicforecastECCC14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-23; gust through 2026-10-23used
ACCESS deterministicforecastBOM26 Jun 18:00 UTC—excluded / unavailable
ARPEGE deterministicforecastMeteoFrance14 Oct 18:00 UTCT through 2026-10-18; gust through 2026-10-18used
JMA deterministicforecastJMA14 Oct 12:00 UTCT through 2026-10-24; gust unavailableused

Latest metadata timestamps are provider status, not proof that every horizon belongs to that one run. Rolling forecast APIs can combine current short-range output with earlier long-range runs. In particular, extended GEM guidance can come from an earlier extended cycle. Raw responses and metadata are retained; exact fixed-run attribution is not asserted.

Sensitivity to including AI models

Repeating the calculation using only the physical ensembles (IFS, GEFS, ICON, GEM and MOGREPS), the largest difference over available days 1–15 is 1.8°C in the central high, 2.4°C in the central low, 2.5 percentage points in daily ≥1 mm rain probability, and 0.0 percentage points in ≥40 km/h gust probability. These are method-sensitivity checks, not proof that either blend is more accurate. Additional method details appear below.

Method and practical limits